Loading…
Atlanta BravesBryce Elder
#55 · P · 6-2 · 220 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: Aug 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.7 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListBryce Elder isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Oct 2, 2026
Elder had his knee scoped Tuesday and will miss the remainder of the regular season, though he's aiming to be available at some point during the playoffs. If he does return for the postseason, it would likely be in a relief role. The right-hander has posted a 4.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 121:49 K:BB over 149 innings covering 26 starts for Atlanta this season.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency26argues against it
Projection
4.3 K
L5 4.0 · L10 4.2 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season26 games
46%over
12 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–65%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 25/26 | ||
| 88% | 23/26 | ||
| 65% | 17/26 | ||
| 4.5Current | 46% | 12/26 | |
| 31% | 8/26 | ||
| 19% | 5/26 | ||
| 15% | 4/26 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home41%7/17Medium
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%11/25Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Bryce Elder has gone over 4.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 46% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Truist Park · Atlanta Braves
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.01)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.