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San Diego PadresBryce Johnson
#29 · RF · 5-11 · 190 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Jun 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.5 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsCool underFireFactor 32/100· model 74% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.3 H(×0.82 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
38%over
5 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%Season13 games
38%over
5 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 38% | 5/13 | |
| 15% | 2/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Ramón Laureano out · Right Hip Surgery
Without (4g)
0.5 H
25% over 0.5
With (9g)
0.6 H
44% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs HOU
Aug 8, 2026
22ndof 30 in H allowed to hitters
HOU pitching allows 7.9 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bryce Johnson has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 38% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 22nd-most H of 30 teams (7.9 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Petco Park · San Diego Padres
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.