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Philadelphia PhilliesCaleb Kilian
#56 · P · 6-4 · 206 lb · 49 games
Stats updated: Aug 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.1 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCaleb Kilian isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Oblique Strain
- Est. return:
- Oct 9, 2026
Kilian initially landed on the injured list Aug. 10 with a left oblique strain, so his move to the 60-day IL will prevent him from returning before the end of the regular season. His place on the 40-man roster will be given to Jose Urquidy, who was claimed off waivers from the White Sox on Thursday.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)97supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 K
L5 1.0 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season49 games
35%over
17 over · 32 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–49%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 38/49 | ||
| 1.5Current | 35% | 17/49 | |
| 2% | 1/49 | ||
| 0% | 0/49 | ||
| 0% | 0/49 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home24%6/25Medium
Away46%11/24Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%3/9Low
1 day19%3/16Medium
2 days42%5/12Low
3+ days55%6/11Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Felix Reyes out · Right Wrist Fracture+0.2 K when he sits
Without (45g)
1.2 K
33% over 1.5
With (4g)
1.0 K
50% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Caleb Kilian has gone over 1.5 K 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 35% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia Phillies
neutral (runs ×1.03, HR ×1.09)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 35%.