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Chicago CubsCaleb Thielbar
#24 · P · 6-0 · 205 lb · 42 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cool underFireFactor 30/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)87supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 K
L5 0.4 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season42 games
38%over
16 over · 26 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–53%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 27/42 | ||
| 1.5Current | 38% | 16/42 | |
| 2% | 1/42 | ||
| 0% | 0/42 | ||
| 0% | 0/42 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%7/24Medium
Away50%9/18Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)36%4/11Low
1 day27%3/11Low
2 days33%2/6Low
3+ days54%7/13Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Caleb Thielbar has gone over 1.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 38% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.