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Houston AstrosCarlos Correa
#1 · SS · 6-3 · 220 lb · 31 games
Stats updated: May 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Puerto Rico
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCarlos Correa isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Ankle Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Correa underwent season-ending left ankle surgery in May. Nothing has changed regarding Correa's timetable, but being able to re-incorporate baseball activities in late July gives him a good chance to enter the offseason without any restrictions.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.9 H(×0.97 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season31 games
68%over
21 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 50%–81%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 68% | 21/31 | |
| 32% | 10/31 | ||
| 10% | 3/31 | ||
| 0% | 0/31 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home53%9/17Medium
Away86%12/14Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)71%17/24Medium
1 day75%3/4Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Brice Matthews out · Left Knee Sprain-0.4 H when he sits
Without (9g)
0.8 H
56% over 0.5
With (22g)
1.2 H
73% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ SD
Aug 8, 2026
12thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SD pitching allows 8.3 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Carlos Correa has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 68% across the full season. SD has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 12th-most H of 30 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Daikin Park · Houston Astros
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 68%.