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New York YankeesCarlos Rodón
#55 · P · 6-2 · 255 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jun 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.8 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCarlos Rodón isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 18, 2026
Per MLB.com, Rodon threw about 40 pitches in Monday's live BP and could begin the rehab assignment this Saturday. The left-hander has been sidelined since his last start June 28 due to left elbow inflammation. If all goes well for Rodon moving forward, he'll log a few minor-league starts before being activated from the IL by the end of August.
Verdict
vs 6.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency60neutral
Projection
5.9 K
L5 6.4 · L10 5.8 · med 6.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 4.6 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 8/9 | ||
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 6.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away17%1/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Aaron Judge out · Right Ribs Fracture+1.4 K when he sits
Without (5g)
6.4 K
60% over 6.5
With (4g)
5.0 K
25% over 6.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 9 games, Carlos Rodón has gone over 6.5 K 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Yankee Stadium · New York Yankees
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.12)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.