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San Francisco GiantsCesar Perdomo
#83 · P · 5-10 · 219 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Sep 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 5/100· model 30% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line30argues against it
Consistency32argues against it
Projection
2.6 K(×0.92 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.2 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 4/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 3.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 0% | 0/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%1/3Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 4 games, Cesar Perdomo has gone over 3.5 K 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 3.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 55.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 44.9%
Best Over
FanDuel-140
-5.6% EV
Best Under
FanDuel+110
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-25.0%
Our model puts the over at 30.1% vs the market's no-vig 55.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.