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Milwaukee BrewersChandler Patrick
#39 · P · 6-1 · 217 lb · 39 games
Stats updated: Aug 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 2.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.8 K
L5 2.2 · L10 1.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season39 games
54%over
21 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–68%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 32/39 | ||
| 1.5Current | 54% | 21/39 | |
| 28% | 11/39 | ||
| 21% | 8/39 | ||
| 10% | 4/39 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home48%11/23Medium
Away63%10/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)25%1/4Low
1 day63%5/8Low
2 days36%4/11Low
3+ days67%10/15Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Chandler Patrick has gone over 1.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 54% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
American Family Field · Milwaukee Brewers
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.