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Toronto Blue JaysChase Lee
#52 · P · 6-0 · 170 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Aug 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 9/100· model 64% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.4 K
L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
3+ days0%0/3Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 5 games, Chase Lee has gone over 0.5 K 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rogers Centre · Toronto Blue Jays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.