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Baltimore OriolesChristopher Bassitt
#40 · P · 6-5 · 220 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Jun 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.1 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 7/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.9 K
L5 3.4 · L10 3.4 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2012 games
58%over
7 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%Season12 games
58%over
7 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 11/12 | ||
| 83% | 10/12 | ||
| 2.5Current | 58% | 7/12 | |
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 17% | 2/12 | ||
| 17% | 2/12 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Adley Rutschman out · Left Wrist Inflammation-2.0 K when he sits
Without (4g)
1.8 K
25% over 2.5
With (8g)
3.8 K
75% over 2.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Christopher Bassitt has gone over 2.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 58% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.