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Kansas City RoyalsCole Ragans
#55 · P · 6-4 · 190 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: May 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCole Ragans isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Jun 1, 2027
It was unknown what type of procedure Ragans would need when the Royals announced last weekend that he was scheduled for surgery. Now confirmed to have undergone UCL repair surgery, the 28-year-old southpaw will officially miss the remainder of the season and is likely to remain out until midway through the 2027 campaign. He'll close the book on 2026 after putting up a 4.84 ERA and 1.42 WHIP alongside a 45:23 K:BB through 35.1 innings over eight starts.
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency8argues against it
Projection
5.9 K
L5 6.0 · L10 5.6 · med 5.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.8 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jonathan India out · Left Shoulder Surgery+3.3 K when he sits
Without (4g)
7.3 K
75% over 5.5
With (4g)
4.0 K
25% over 5.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 8 games, Cole Ragans has gone over 5.5 K 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.