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Arizona DiamondbacksCorbin Carroll
#7 · RF · 5-10 · 180 lb · 153 games
Stats updated: Sep 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 HSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCorbin Carroll isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Mar 1, 2027
Carroll finished off the scoring in a four-run first inning with a two-out, two-run triple. It turned out to be the game-winning knock. The triple was his league-leading 17th of the season and tied a career-best mark set in 2025. He's provided some key hits as the Diamondbacks chase a postseason berth; Carroll has two doubles, one triple, three home runs and 14 RBI over his last 11 contests.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)90supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 H(×0.93 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season153 games
63%over
97 over · 56 under
High confidence95% CI 56%–71%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 63% | 97/153 | |
| 23% | 35/153 | ||
| 4% | 6/153 | ||
| 1% | 1/153 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%49/77High
Away63%48/76High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)62%77/125High
1 day77%17/22Medium
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days100%2/2Low
Last matchup — @ SD
Sep 27, 2026
17thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SD pitching allows 8.0 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 162 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Corbin Carroll has gone over 0.5 H 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 63% across the full season. SD has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 17th-most H of 30 teams (8.0 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Chase Field · Arizona Diamondbacks
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.