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New York MetsCraig Kimbrel
#26 · P · 6-0 · 215 lb · 46 games
Stats updated: Sep 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 17 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCraig Kimbrel isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Personal
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
Kimbrel entered a scoreless game in the 10th and couldn't contain Arizona after beginning the inning with the automatic runner at second. Lars Nootbaar's sacrifice fly broke the tie, and the Diamondbacks eventually pushed across five runs in the frame. Kimbrel finished the inning, but the Royals couldn't respond in the bottom of the frame, so the veteran reliever was tagged with his fourth loss of the season while seeing his ERA climb to 4.53. Despite the subpar outing, it wouldn't be surprising if Kimbrel gets more ninth-inning opportunities -- the Royals are employing a committee-based approach in the absence of Carlos Estevez (shoulder), and Kimbrel is one of the options to close out games alongside Steven Cruz and Nate Pearson.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)94supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.6 K(×0.92 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season46 games
65%over
30 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 51%–77%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 65% | 30/46 | |
| 20% | 9/46 | ||
| 2% | 1/46 | ||
| 0% | 0/46 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home83%19/23Medium
Away48%11/23Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)43%3/7Low
1 day71%10/14Medium
2 days57%4/7Low
3+ days71%12/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jorge Polanco out · Left Ankle Surgery-0.2 K when he sits
Without (40g)
0.8 K
65% over 0.5
With (6g)
1.0 K
67% over 0.5
Jared Young out · Concussion Concussion
Without (22g)
0.9 K
68% over 0.5
With (24g)
0.8 K
63% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Craig Kimbrel has gone over 0.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 65% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citi Field · New York Mets
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 65%.