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New York MetsDaniel Duarte
#54 · P · 6-0 · 235 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Sep 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Mexico
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.3 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListDaniel Duarte isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Hamstring Strain
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The injury ends what has been a terrific season out of the Mets' bullpen this season, as he holds a 2.12 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 30:7 K:BB over 29.2 innings. Duarte is under team control for several more years and has set himself up well to be part of the Mets' bullpen in 2027.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)78supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.4 K
L5 1.0 · L10 1.5 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.6 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season24 games
38%over
9 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 21%–57%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 19/24 | ||
| 1.5Current | 38% | 9/24 | |
| 8% | 2/24 | ||
| 0% | 0/24 | ||
| 0% | 0/24 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home58%7/12Low
Away17%2/12Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day50%5/10Low
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jorge Polanco out · Left Ankle Surgery+0.2 K when he sits
Without (16g)
1.3 K
38% over 1.5
With (8g)
1.1 K
38% over 1.5
Jared Young out · Concussion Concussion-0.3 K when he sits
Without (3g)
1.0 K
33% over 1.5
With (21g)
1.3 K
38% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Daniel Duarte has gone over 1.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 38% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citi Field · New York Mets
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.