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Chicago White SoxDavis Martin
#65 · P · 6-2 · 215 lb · 22 games
Stats updated: Aug 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency15argues against it
Projection
3.8 K
L5 3.4 · L10 3.4 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season22 games
55%over
12 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–73%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 20/22 | ||
| 82% | 18/22 | ||
| 68% | 15/22 | ||
| 4.5Current | 55% | 12/22 | |
| 45% | 10/22 | ||
| 27% | 6/22 | ||
| 9% | 2/22 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home70%7/10Low
Away42%5/12Low
Days since last game
3+ days52%11/21Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kyle Teel out · Left Ankle Sprain+2.9 K when he sits
Without (18g)
5.4 K
61% over 4.5
With (4g)
2.5 K
25% over 4.5
Austin Hays out · Left Calf Strain-1.7 K when he sits
Without (19g)
4.6 K
47% over 4.5
With (3g)
6.3 K
100% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Davis Martin has gone over 4.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 55% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rate Field · Chicago White Sox
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.06)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 4.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 43.4%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 56.6%
Best Over
FanDuel+120
-4.5% EV
Best Under
BetRivers-150
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)+2.3%
Our model puts the over at 45.8% vs the market's no-vig 43.4%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.