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Toronto Blue JaysDavis Schneider
#36 · LF · 5-8 · 190 lb · 39 games
Stats updated: Aug 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Hits · season avg 0.4 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsCold underFireFactor 53/100· model 75% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.3 H(×0.95 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season39 games
28%over
11 over · 28 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–44%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 28% | 11/39 | |
| 8% | 3/39 | ||
| 0% | 0/39 | ||
| 0% | 0/39 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home15%3/20Medium
Away42%8/19Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)7%1/14Medium
1 day45%5/11Low
2 days60%3/5Low
3+ days25%2/8Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Addison Barger out · Right Elbow Surgery-0.3 H when he sits
Without (36g)
0.3 H
25% over 0.5
With (3g)
0.7 H
67% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ PHI
Aug 7, 2026
8thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
PHI pitching allows 8.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Davis Schneider has gone over 0.5 H 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 28% across the full season. PHI has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 8th-most H of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rogers Centre · Toronto Blue Jays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 48.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 52.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-104
-5.9% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-125
-6.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-22.7%
Our model puts the over at 25.2% vs the market's no-vig 48.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 28%.