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Toronto Blue JaysDylan Cease
#84 · P · 6-2 · 200 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Sep 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 8.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Day-to-dayDay-to-dayConfirm Dylan Cease's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Shoulder
The right-hander surrendered four runs (one earned) on three hits and six walks over 2.2 innings Friday against the Rangers, and he was sent for imaging since he's apparently been battling some shoulder fatigue. While Cease won't make his regular turn through the rotation Wednesday in Baltimore, manager John Schneider didn't rule out the possibility of him pitching next weekend versus the Reds. The Blue Jays are three games back from the final wild-card spot and could shut Cease down if they are eliminated from playoff contention prior to next weekend.
Verdict
vs 8.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cool underFireFactor 26/100· model 68% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency54neutral
Projection
6.3 K(×0.92 context)
L5 6.0 · L10 7.2 · med 7.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 6.6 · ceil 10.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season29 games
45%over
13 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–62%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 26/29 | ||
| 79% | 23/29 | ||
| 62% | 18/29 | ||
| 8.5Current | 45% | 13/29 | |
| 31% | 9/29 | ||
| 17% | 5/29 | ||
| 10% | 3/29 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home47%7/15Low
Away43%6/14Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%12/28Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Dylan Cease has gone over 8.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 45% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rogers Centre · Toronto Blue Jays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (7.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
- Underdogline 7.5under rate 38%edge 0
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.