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Detroit TigersEduardo Valencia
#32 · C · 6-1 · 180 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- Rookie
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Hits · season avg 1.3 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
1.0 H(×0.95 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 1.3 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 1.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 10% | 1/10 | ||
| 10% | 1/10 | ||
| 0% | 0/10 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — @ SF
Aug 8, 2026
11thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SF pitching allows 8.3 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Eduardo Valencia has gone over 1.5 H 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 11th-most H of 30 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.