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Toronto Blue JaysEloy Jiménez
#74 · DH · 6-4 · 250 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Apr 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.6 H(×0.99 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day0%0/2Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — @ PHI
Aug 8, 2026
8thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
PHI pitching allows 8.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Eloy Jiménez has gone over 0.5 H 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. PHI has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 8th-most H of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rogers Centre · Toronto Blue Jays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.