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Seattle MarinersEmerson Hancock
#26 · P · 6-4 · 213 lb · 25 games
Stats updated: Aug 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListEmerson Hancock isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Groin Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 25, 2026
Hancock felt something off in his left leg early on in his most recent start Friday against Toronto. The 27-year-old went on to take the loss after allowing five runs over five innings. The right-hander will miss a minimum of 15 days and a couple of starts for Seattle. The Mariners recalled Nick Davila from Triple-A Tacoma to fill in for Hancock on the 26-man roster.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency13argues against it
Projection
4.5 K
L5 4.8 · L10 4.5 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season25 games
56%over
14 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 37%–73%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 24/25 | ||
| 88% | 22/25 | ||
| 68% | 17/25 | ||
| 4.5Current | 56% | 14/25 | |
| 40% | 10/25 | ||
| 16% | 4/25 | ||
| 12% | 3/25 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home69%9/13Medium
Away42%5/12Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%13/24Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Brendan Donovan out · Not Specified Concussion Concussion-1.9 K when he sits
Without (18g)
4.5 K
44% over 4.5
With (7g)
6.4 K
86% over 4.5
Colt Emerson out · Left Wrist Surgery+0.9 K when he sits
Without (14g)
5.4 K
57% over 4.5
With (11g)
4.5 K
55% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Emerson Hancock has gone over 4.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 56% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
T-Mobile Park · Seattle Mariners
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.93, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.