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Detroit TigersEnmanuel De Jesus
#37 · P · 6-3 · 190 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 13/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.4 K
L5 1.6 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season26 games
38%over
10 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–57%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 23/26 | ||
| 1.5Current | 38% | 10/26 | |
| 12% | 3/26 | ||
| 4% | 1/26 | ||
| 0% | 0/26 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home54%7/13Low
Away23%3/13Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day40%2/5Low
2 days33%2/6Low
3+ days20%2/10Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Wenceel Pérez out · Left Orbital Fracture+0.3 K when he sits
Without (12g)
1.6 K
42% over 1.5
With (14g)
1.3 K
36% over 1.5
Parker Meadows out · Left Arm Surgery-0.4 K when he sits
Without (22g)
1.4 K
36% over 1.5
With (4g)
1.8 K
50% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Enmanuel De Jesus has gone over 1.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 38% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.