Loading…
Chicago CubsEthan Roberts
#39 · P · 5-10 · 180 lb · 23 games
Stats updated: Jun 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.7 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListEthan Roberts isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Forearm Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 4, 2026
Roberts needed just 10 pitches (seven strikes) to retire the side in what was his first game action at any level since June 28. Cubs manager Craig Counsell hasn't provided word on the next steps for Roberts, but the right-hander may not need any further rehab appearances before returning from the 15-day injured list. MLB.com currently lists Roberts as its probable starter for Tuesday's game against the Tigers, though if he's activated for that contest, he would likely work just an inning or two before David Peterson takes over in bulk relief.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.4 K
L5 0.2 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season23 games
43%over
10 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–63%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 43% | 10/23 | |
| 26% | 6/23 | ||
| 4% | 1/23 | ||
| 0% | 0/23 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%6/10Low
Away31%4/13Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/4Low
1 day75%6/8Low
2 days0%0/3Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Ethan Roberts has gone over 0.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 43% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Wrigley Field · Chicago Cubs
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.