Loading…
Philadelphia PhilliesFelix Reyes
#29 · LF · 6-3 · 195 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: May 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 0.5 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListFelix Reyes isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Wrist Fracture
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Reyes saw a decent amount of playing time initially upon his promotion last month, but he's hardly played lately with just one start over his team's last 10 games. Otto Kemp will grab the roster spot vacated by Reyes, who should receive more regular reps with Lehigh Valley.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.5 H(×0.90 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 0% | 0/12 | ||
| 0% | 0/12 | ||
| 0% | 0/12 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day0%0/2Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — @ BOS
May 14, 2026
17thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
BOS pitching allows 8.1 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 155 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Felix Reyes has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. BOS has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 17th-most H of 30 teams (8.1 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia Phillies
neutral (runs ×1.03, HR ×1.09)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.