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New York YankeesFernando Cruz
#63 · P · 6-2 · 237 lb · 61 games
Stats updated: Aug 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Puerto Rico
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.1 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListFernando Cruz isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Soreness
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
Cruz was diagnosed with a partial tear in his right elbow UCL in late August. It's an injury that sometimes requires surgery and often results in an extended absence, but Cruz is motivated to make it back before the regular season concludes. Being able to accomplish that feat, however, is not a given.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)80supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 K
L5 1.0 · L10 0.9 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season61 games
61%over
37 over · 24 under
High confidence95% CI 48%–72%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 61% | 37/61 | |
| 34% | 21/61 | ||
| 11% | 7/61 | ||
| 3% | 2/61 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%17/30Medium
Away65%20/31Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)80%12/15Medium
1 day48%10/21Medium
2 days69%9/13Medium
3+ days55%6/11Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Aaron Judge out · Right Calf Strain
Without (33g)
1.1 K
61% over 0.5
With (28g)
1.1 K
61% over 0.5
Giancarlo Stanton out · Left Calf Strain-0.1 K when he sits
Without (51g)
1.1 K
59% over 0.5
With (10g)
1.2 K
70% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Fernando Cruz has gone over 0.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 61% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Yankee Stadium · New York Yankees
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.12)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 61%.