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Cleveland GuardiansFranco Aleman
#55 · P · 6-6 · 235 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Cuba
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Warm overFireFactor 50/100· model 75% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.9 K
L5 2.6 · L10 1.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2015 games
67%over
10 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–85%Season15 games
67%over
10 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–85%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 67% | 10/15 | |
| 27% | 4/15 | ||
| 27% | 4/15 | ||
| 13% | 2/15 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away86%6/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%3/3Low
1 day50%2/4Low
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days80%4/5Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Franco Aleman has gone over 0.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 67% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Progressive Field · Cleveland Guardians
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.