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Washington NationalsFred Griffin
#22 · P · 6-3 · 225 lb · 23 games
Stats updated: Aug 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.3 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
4.8 K
L5 4.4 · L10 5.3 · med 5.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 7.6
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season23 games
48%over
11 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–67%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 19/23 | ||
| 70% | 16/23 | ||
| 65% | 15/23 | ||
| 5.5Current | 48% | 11/23 | |
| 30% | 7/23 | ||
| 22% | 5/23 | ||
| 17% | 4/23 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home45%5/11Low
Away50%6/12Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%11/22Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Curtis Mead out · Left Wrist Fracture-0.9 K when he sits
Without (6g)
4.7 K
33% over 5.5
With (17g)
5.5 K
53% over 5.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Fred Griffin has gone over 5.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 48% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Nationals Park · Washington Nationals
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.00)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.