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Cleveland GuardiansGabriel Arias
#71 · 3B · 6-1 · 217 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Aug 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Linepays more
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Hits (H)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 3/100· model 23% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)6argues against it
Projection vs line36argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.9 H(×1.15 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season36 games
19%over
7 over · 29 under
Medium confidence95% CI 10%–35%Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home18%3/17Medium
Away21%4/19Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)6%1/18High
1 day33%3/9Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days25%1/4Low
Next matchup — @ CWS
Aug 8, 2026
21stof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CWS pitching allows 8.0 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Gabriel Arias has gone over 1.5 H 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 19% across the full season. CWS has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 21st-most H of 30 teams (8.0 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Progressive Field · Cleveland Guardians
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 19%.