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AthleticsGage Jump
#61 · P · 6-0 · 200 lb · 20 games
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListGage Jump isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder Pinched Nerve
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The A's have already been eliminated from playoff contention, so the move to the IL will officially bring an end to Jump's 2026 campaign. The left-hander finishes his rookie year having gone 6-11 in 20 starts with a 5.47 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 108:46 K:BB across 98.2 innings. He should compete for a rotation spot during spring training but likely won't enter camp with a guaranteed role.
Verdict
vs 5.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
4.8 K
L5 4.6 · L10 5.2 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.8 · ceil 7.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season20 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 16/20 | ||
| 70% | 14/20 | ||
| 70% | 14/20 | ||
| 5.5Current | 45% | 9/20 | |
| 40% | 8/20 | ||
| 20% | 4/20 | ||
| 15% | 3/20 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home45%5/11Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%9/19Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jacob Wilson out · Left Shoulder Surgery-2.5 K when he sits
Without (11g)
4.3 K
18% over 5.5
With (9g)
6.8 K
78% over 5.5
Tyler Soderstrom out · Left Hip Surgery-1.9 K when he sits
Without (7g)
4.1 K
29% over 5.5
With (13g)
6.1 K
54% over 5.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Gage Jump has gone over 5.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 45% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Sutter Health Park · Athletics
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.