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Boston Red SoxGarrett Crochet
#35 · P · 6-6 · 245 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Apr 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 6.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListGarrett Crochet isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Lat Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
Crochet continues to build up side sessions with hope he can help the Red Sox as a reliever over the final week of the regular season. If there are no ill effects from Saturday's session, the Red Sox want the left-hander to face hitters at Fenway Park early this week in advance of a potential return during the team's six-game homestand that wraps up the regular season.
Verdict
vs 7.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
6.6 K(×1.08 context)
L5 5.8 · L10 6.2 · med 7.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.0 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 106 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Last 206 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Season6 games
33%over
2 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 7.5Current | 33% | 2/6 | |
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days20%1/5Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 6 games, Garrett Crochet has gone over 7.5 K 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Fenway Park · Boston Red Sox
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.08, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.