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San Diego PadresGavin Sheets
#30 · 1B · 6-3 · 235 lb · 109 games
Stats updated: Aug 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListGavin Sheets isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Foot Sprain
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
Sheets landed on the injured list Aug. 30 due to a left foot sprain. As of Sept. 8 he was still in a walking boot, and it's not certain that he'll be ready to rejoin San Diego before the end of the campaign. If Sheets does manage to make it back, he probably wouldn't be put in the field. Luis Campusano and Austin Hays have been getting most of the Padres' starts at DH of late, and Sheets could get occasional starts there while also serving as a bench bat.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.4 H(×0.82 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season109 games
51%over
56 over · 53 under
High confidence95% CI 42%–61%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 51% | 56/109 | |
| 12% | 13/109 | ||
| 2% | 2/109 | ||
| 0% | 0/109 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%20/53Medium
Away64%36/56High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)51%39/76High
1 day61%14/23Medium
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days20%1/5Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Ramón Laureano out · Right Hip Surgery-0.2 H when he sits
Without (66g)
0.6 H
50% over 0.5
With (43g)
0.8 H
53% over 0.5
Miguel Andujar out · Right Wrist Fracture-0.2 H when he sits
Without (49g)
0.6 H
47% over 0.5
With (60g)
0.7 H
55% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ LAD
Sep 22, 2026
30thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
LAD pitching allows 7.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Gavin Sheets has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 51% across the full season. LAD has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 30th-most H of 30 teams (7.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Petco Park · San Diego Padres
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 51%.