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Seattle MarinersGeorge Kirby
#68 · P · 6-4 · 215 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Sep 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Hot overFireFactor 55/100· model 67% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency34argues against it
Projection
5.1 K(×1.08 context)
L5 5.2 · L10 3.9 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season29 games
66%over
19 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 47%–80%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 29/29 | ||
| 86% | 25/29 | ||
| 72% | 21/29 | ||
| 4.5Current | 66% | 19/29 | |
| 34% | 10/29 | ||
| 17% | 5/29 | ||
| 7% | 2/29 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%12/15Medium
Away50%7/14Low
Days since last game
3+ days64%18/28Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Brendan Donovan out · Not Specified Concussion Concussion+0.6 K when he sits
Without (21g)
5.1 K
71% over 4.5
With (8g)
4.5 K
50% over 4.5
Colt Emerson out · Left Wrist Surgery+0.5 K when he sits
Without (17g)
5.1 K
71% over 4.5
With (12g)
4.7 K
58% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, George Kirby has gone over 4.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 66% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
T-Mobile Park · Seattle Mariners
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.93, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 4.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 52.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 47.3%
Best Over
BetRivers-130
-6.8% EV
Best Under
BetRivers-103
-6.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+14.7%
Our model puts the over at 67.4% vs the market's no-vig 52.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
- BetRiversbestline 4.5over rate 66%edge +16
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 66%.