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Cleveland GuardiansGeorge Valera
#7 · LF · 5-10 · 195 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Apr 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsWarm overFireFactor 44/100· model 70% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
1.0 H(×1.15 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.6 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 109 games
78%over
7 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%Last 209 games
78%over
7 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%Season9 games
78%over
7 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 78% | 7/9 | |
| 11% | 1/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away100%4/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)80%4/5Low
1 day67%2/3Low
Next matchup — @ CWS
Aug 8, 2026
21stof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CWS pitching allows 8.0 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, George Valera has gone over 0.5 H 7 of 9 decided times (78%) — versus 78% across the full season. CWS has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 21st-most H of 30 teams (8.0 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Progressive Field · Cleveland Guardians
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 78%.