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New York YankeesGiancarlo Stanton
#27 · DH · 6-5 · 245 lb · 23 games
Stats updated: Apr 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 17 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListGiancarlo Stanton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Calf Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 18, 2026
Stanton has been swinging a bat for some time, but that doesn't necessarily gauge where he's at in his recovery from a strained right calf. Still, standing in against Rodon suggests that the slugger is making progress, and he could log more live at-bats Tuesday versus recovering hurler Clarke Schmidt (elbow). Stanton also did some jogging in the Yankee Stadium outfield Monday, and the hope remains that he'll be ready for activation off the IL before the end of August.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.8 H(×0.89 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season23 games
39%over
9 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–59%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 14/23 | ||
| 1.5Current | 39% | 9/23 | |
| 0% | 0/23 | ||
| 0% | 0/23 | ||
| 0% | 0/23 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home17%2/12Medium
Away64%7/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)25%4/16Medium
1 day75%3/4Low
2 days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — vs ATL
Aug 8, 2026
27thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
ATL pitching allows 7.6 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Giancarlo Stanton has gone over 1.5 H 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 39% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 27th-most H of 30 teams (7.6 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Yankee Stadium · New York Yankees
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.12)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 39%.