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San Francisco GiantsHarrison Bader
#9 · CF · 5-11 · 219 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: May 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 HSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutHarrison Bader isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Foot Plantar Fasciitis
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The transaction clears room on the 40-man roster for left-hander Matt Wilkinson, who was called up from Triple-A Sacramento to start Wednesday's game in Cleveland. The Giants had already ruled Bader out for the season shortly after the All-Star break, when the outfielder suffered further damage to his injured left foot in a scooter accident. Manager Tony Vitello said that even before the accident, Bader had been considered out for the season while struggling to recover from plantar fasciitis, which sent him to the IL on May 30. Bader slashed just .170/.198/.358 over 30 games in what was a highly disappointing first season with the Giants, who signed him to a two-year, $20.5 million deal in January.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.7 H(×0.96 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season26 games
54%over
14 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–71%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 54% | 14/26 | |
| 12% | 3/26 | ||
| 0% | 0/26 | ||
| 0% | 0/26 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home36%5/14Medium
Away75%9/12Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)53%9/17Medium
1 day25%1/4Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days100%2/2Low
Last matchup — @ COL
May 29, 2026
1stof 30 in H allowed to hitters
COL pitching allows 10.1 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 162 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Harrison Bader has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. COL has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 1st-most H of 30 teams (10.1 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.