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St. Louis CardinalsHunter Dobbins
#40 · P · 6-2 · 185 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Aug 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.7 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListHunter Dobbins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Sep 1, 2027
Dobbins was placed on the 15-day injured list Aug. 22 with right forearm discomfort, but after he received a second opinion on the arm Tuesday, he opted to undergo elbow surgery. The 27-year-old has now undergone two procedures on his right elbow in his young career, and he may be forced to miss the entirety of the 2027 campaign while recovering. Dobbins made 11 appearances, including eight starts, with St. Louis this season, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 52 strikeouts over 54 innings.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency60neutral
Projection
4.7 K
L5 4.8 · L10 4.8 · med 4.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 4.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Season11 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 11/11 | ||
| 100% | 11/11 | ||
| 91% | 10/11 | ||
| 4.5Current | 45% | 5/11 | |
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 9% | 1/11 | ||
| 0% | 0/11 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Blaze Jordan out · Left Ankle Sprain+0.5 K when he sits
Without (5g)
5.0 K
60% over 4.5
With (6g)
4.5 K
33% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Hunter Dobbins has gone over 4.5 K 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 45% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Busch Stadium · St. Louis Cardinals
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.