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Boston Red SoxIsiah Kiner-Falefa Home Runs
Stats updated: Jun 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa has gone over 0.5 HR in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Home Runs · season avg 0.1 HR · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListIsiah Kiner-Falefa isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Forearm Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 14, 2026
Healy relays that Kiner-Falefa is still "weeks away" from returning from the 10-day injured list, but the good news for the veteran infielder is that he has been given the green light to take the next step in his recovery program. He has not played since June 18 while recovering from a stress reaction in his left forearm.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HRHome RunsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 88% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line88supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.2 HR(×1.14 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2020 games
10%over
2 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 3%–30%Season36 games
6%over
2 over · 34 under
High confidence95% CI 2%–18%Alternate lines — Home Runs (HR)
HR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 6% | 2/36 | |
| 0% | 0/36 | ||
| 0% | 0/36 | ||
| 0% | 0/36 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 HR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home10%2/20Medium
Away0%0/16High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)5%1/19High
1 day0%0/4Low
2 days20%1/5Low
3+ days0%0/7Medium
With a teammate out
How this HR line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Roman Anthony out · Right Finger Sprain
Without (26g)
0.1 HR
8% over 0.5
With (10g)
0.0 HR
0% over 0.5
Trevor Story out · Not Specified Abdomen Surgery
Without (22g)
0.1 HR
9% over 0.5
With (14g)
0.0 HR
0% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs ATH
Aug 8, 2026
1stof 30 in HR allowed to hitters
ATH pitching allows 1.6 HR per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has gone over 0.5 HR 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 6% across the full season. ATH has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 1st-most HR of 30 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game HR have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Fenway Park · Boston Red Sox
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.08, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 6%.
More Isiah Kiner-Falefa research
Isiah Kiner-Falefa — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kiner-Falefa Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Kiner-Falefa RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Kiner-Falefa Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Kiner-Falefa Stolen Bases→
Stolen Bases hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.