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Los Angeles AngelsJack Kochanowicz
#41 · P · 6-7 · 228 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Jun 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJack Kochanowicz isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Sep 1, 2027
That's obviously good news for the right-handed hurler, who went under the knife in mid-June. Kochanowicz will be out for the remainder of this season and for at least a portion of 2027, though he could potentially return to action late in the campaign. He posted a 6.19 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 47:36 K:BB over 64 frames spanning 13 starts this season before being sidelined.
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
3.0 K
L5 3.4 · L10 3.5 · med 4.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 12/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 3.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days58%7/12Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Yoán Moncada out · Right Knee Surgery-0.4 K when he sits
Without (5g)
3.4 K
60% over 3.5
With (8g)
3.8 K
50% over 3.5
Sebastián Rivero out · Left Hand Surgery+0.4 K when he sits
Without (10g)
3.7 K
50% over 3.5
With (3g)
3.3 K
67% over 3.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Jack Kochanowicz has gone over 3.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Angel Stadium · Los Angeles Angels
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.