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Tampa Bay RaysJake Fraley
#17 · RF · 5-11 · 206 lb · 20 games
Stats updated: May 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.8 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJake Fraley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Groin Surgery
- Est. return:
- Aug 14, 2026
The transaction clears a spot on the 40-man roster for right-hander Freddy Peralta, whom the Rays acquired in a deal with the Mets. Fraley had already been on the shelf since May 17 while recovering from hernia surgery, so his move to the 60-day IL won't affect his timeline to rejoin the big club. The outfielder was pulled off a rehab assignment in early July after experiencing some discomfort in his groin area, and it's unclear when he might be ready to return to action in the minors.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)94supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.7 H(×1.09 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season20 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 65% | 13/20 | |
| 10% | 2/20 | ||
| 0% | 0/20 | ||
| 0% | 0/20 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away67%8/12Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)60%3/5Low
1 day43%3/7Low
2 days100%3/3Low
3+ days100%4/4Low
Next matchup — @ SEA
Aug 8, 2026
16thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SEA pitching allows 8.1 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jake Fraley has gone over 0.5 H 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 65% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 16th-most H of 30 teams (8.1 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Steinbrenner Field · Tampa Bay Rays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.04)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 65%.