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San Diego PadresJeremiah Estrada
#56 · P · 6-1 · 185 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Aug 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJeremiah Estrada isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Pinched Nerve
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
Estrada has been on the IL three different times this season, with his latest stint coming as the result of a right shoulder impingement. Though the righty reliever has been rehabbing in Arizona, the fact that he's yet to resume throwing suggests that he's not certain to pitch again this season. Estrada had been a key late-inning asset for the Padres before getting hurt, recording 13 holds and one save while posting a 3.48 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 31 innings spanning 33 appearances.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 K(×0.92 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season33 games
33%over
11 over · 22 under
Medium confidence95% CI 20%–50%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 25/33 | ||
| 1.5Current | 33% | 11/33 | |
| 6% | 2/33 | ||
| 0% | 0/33 | ||
| 0% | 0/33 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home42%8/19Medium
Away21%3/14Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)38%3/8Low
1 day38%3/8Low
2 days9%1/11Medium
3+ days60%3/5Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Ramón Laureano out · Right Hip Surgery
Without (17g)
1.2 K
35% over 1.5
With (16g)
1.1 K
31% over 1.5
Miguel Andujar out · Right Wrist Fracture+0.2 K when he sits
Without (14g)
1.3 K
36% over 1.5
With (19g)
1.1 K
32% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Jeremiah Estrada has gone over 1.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 33% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Petco Park · San Diego Padres
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.