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Houston AstrosJeremy Peña
#3 · SS · 6-0 · 202 lb · 99 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Linepays less
Hits · season avg 1.2 H · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Day-to-dayDay-to-dayConfirm Jeremy Peña's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Wrist
Pena tied the game 1-1 in the bottom of the first inning with a lead-off, 394-foot shot off Seth Lugo. It's the 20th homer of the year for Pena, two shy of his career high that he set as a rookie in 2022. Pena's gone 8-for-13 (.615) with three long balls in his last three games, boosting his slash line to .279/.330/.477 with 74 runs scored, 51 RBI and nine steals across 443 plate appearances this season.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsHot overFireFactor 51/100· model 78% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)92supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
1.3 H(×1.08 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.4 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~62% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season99 games
76%over
75 over · 24 under
High confidence95% CI 66%–83%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 76% | 75/99 | |
| 29% | 29/99 | ||
| 10% | 10/99 | ||
| 0% | 0/99 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home76%35/46High
Away75%40/53High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)73%54/74High
1 day80%12/15Medium
2 days100%5/5Medium
3+ days75%3/4Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Carlos Correa out · Left Ankle Surgery-0.1 H when he sits
Without (91g)
1.1 H
75% over 0.5
With (8g)
1.3 H
88% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ SEA
Sep 23, 2026
9thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SEA pitching allows 8.4 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jeremy Peña has gone over 0.5 H 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 76% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 9th-most H of 30 teams (8.4 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Daikin Park · Houston Astros
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 64.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 35.9%
Best Over
BetMGM-190
-2.1% EV
Best Under
DraftKings+184
+1.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+13.5%
Our model puts the over at 77.6% vs the market's no-vig 64.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 76%.