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Toronto Blue JaysJonatan Clase
#8 · LF · 5-10 · 150 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Jul 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJonatan Clase isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Foot Plantar Fasciitis
- Est. return:
- Aug 7, 2026
Clase was scratched from the lineup ahead of Tuesday's contest due to foot discomfort, and the issue will now cause him to miss a second consecutive start. Yohendrick Pinango will start in left field and bat fifth while Clase recovers.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.8 H(×1.07 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/2Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day100%1/1Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — @ PHI
Aug 8, 2026
8thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
PHI pitching allows 8.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jonatan Clase has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. PHI has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 8th-most H of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rogers Centre · Toronto Blue Jays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.