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Philadelphia PhilliesJonathan Bowlan
#52 · P · 6-6 · 240 lb · 43 games
Stats updated: Aug 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cold underFireFactor 57/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.4 K
L5 1.6 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.4 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season43 games
28%over
12 over · 31 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–43%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 34/43 | ||
| 1.5Current | 28% | 12/43 | |
| 12% | 5/43 | ||
| 0% | 0/43 | ||
| 0% | 0/43 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home32%8/25Medium
Away22%4/18Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/7Medium
1 day25%4/16Medium
2 days43%3/7Low
3+ days42%5/12Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rafael Marchán out · Left Knee Tendinitis
Without (31g)
1.2 K
26% over 1.5
With (12g)
1.2 K
33% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Jonathan Bowlan has gone over 1.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 28% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia Phillies
neutral (runs ×1.03, HR ×1.09)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 28%.