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Tampa Bay RaysJonathan Heasley
#68 · P · 6-3 · 225 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: May 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 2.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJonathan Heasley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Fracture
- Est. return:
- Aug 10, 2026
Heasley was outrighted to Triple-A Durham on Saturday, but because he suffered his injury during his time with the Rays, he'll be placed on the Rays' 15-day injured list and also reclaim a spot on the 40-man roster. The 29-year-old righty gave up five earned runs in four innings during his lone outing with Tampa and will likely be outrighted to Triple-A again once he's healthy.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency100supports it
Projection
2.0 K
L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 2.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 1.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away100%1/1Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 1 games, Jonathan Heasley has gone over 1.5 K 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Steinbrenner Field · Tampa Bay Rays
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.04)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.