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Chicago White SoxJordan Leasure
#49 · P · 6-3 · 220 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: May 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJordan Leasure isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Forearm Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 17, 2026
Leasure has been sidelined since late May with a right flexor strain. He was able to resume bullpen sessions in late July, and he is expected to return at some point in August. However, he will almost certainly need a rehab assignment, so he may not be activated until late in the month.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 K
L5 1.2 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2018 games
67%over
12 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 44%–84%Season18 games
67%over
12 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 44%–84%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 67% | 12/18 | |
| 33% | 6/18 | ||
| 0% | 0/18 | ||
| 0% | 0/18 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day83%5/6Low
2 days75%3/4Low
3+ days60%3/5Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Austin Hays out · Left Calf Strain-0.3 K when he sits
Without (13g)
0.9 K
62% over 0.5
With (5g)
1.2 K
80% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Jordan Leasure has gone over 0.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 67% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rate Field · Chicago White Sox
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.06)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.