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Chicago White SoxJordan Leasure
#49 · P · 6-3 · 220 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: May 28, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.0 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJordan Leasure isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Forearm Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2028
Leasure will miss the remainder of this season and likely all of next season while on the mend. Fegan notes that the right-hander hopes to be ready for spring of 2028. Leasure landed on the injured list in late May with a right flexor strain, and while he had been cleared to resume throwing side sessions at the beginning of August, it was ultimately determined that he needed to go under the knife to repair his UCL.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 K
L5 1.2 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2018 games
67%over
12 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 44%–84%Season18 games
67%over
12 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 44%–84%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 67% | 12/18 | |
| 33% | 6/18 | ||
| 0% | 0/18 | ||
| 0% | 0/18 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day83%5/6Low
2 days75%3/4Low
3+ days60%3/5Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Everson Pereira out · Left Hand Bruise+0.2 K when he sits
Without (9g)
1.1 K
78% over 0.5
With (9g)
0.9 K
56% over 0.5
Tanner Murray out · Left Shoulder Surgery+0.2 K when he sits
Without (12g)
1.1 K
75% over 0.5
With (6g)
0.8 K
50% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Jordan Leasure has gone over 0.5 K 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 67% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Rate Field · Chicago White Sox
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.06)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.