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Cleveland GuardiansJoseph Cantillo
#54 · P · 6-4 · 225 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Aug 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.4 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 11/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency27argues against it
Projection
5.9 K
L5 6.6 · L10 6.6 · med 7.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 7.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season24 games
54%over
13 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–72%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 22/24 | ||
| 88% | 21/24 | ||
| 88% | 21/24 | ||
| 4.5Current | 54% | 13/24 | |
| 46% | 11/24 | ||
| 33% | 8/24 | ||
| 21% | 5/24 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away54%7/13Low
Days since last game
3+ days52%12/23Medium
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Joseph Cantillo has gone over 4.5 K 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 54% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Progressive Field · Cleveland Guardians
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.