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St. Louis CardinalsJoshua Báez
#22 · LF · 6-3 · 220 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Sep 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Linepays more
Hits · season avg 0.8 H · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Hits (H)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Injured ListInjured ListJoshua Báez isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Oblique Strain
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Baez was injured during Wednesday's game against the Giants, and subsequent testing revealed the strain. He will be eligible to return for the final game of the regular season, but the injury will almost surely end his campaign. It's an unfortunate conclusion to the rookie season of Baez, who flashed both the good (seven home runs, .510 slugging percentage) and bad (30.6 percent strikeout rate) of his profile.
Verdict
vs 2.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 7% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line12argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.7 H(×0.97 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2020 games
5%over
1 over · 19 under
High confidence95% CI 1%–24%Season24 games
8%over
2 over · 22 under
High confidence95% CI 2%–26%Situational splits
Over 2.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home13%1/8Medium
Away6%1/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/13High
1 day13%1/8Medium
2 days0%0/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Blaze Jordan out · Left Ankle Sprain+0.5 H when he sits
Without (13g)
1.1 H
8% over 2.5
With (11g)
0.5 H
9% over 2.5
Everson Pereira out · Left Hand Bruise
Without (19g)
0.8 H
5% over 2.5
With (5g)
0.8 H
20% over 2.5
Last matchup — vs SF
Sep 16, 2026
12thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SF pitching allows 8.3 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 155 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Joshua Báez has gone over 2.5 H 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 8% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 12th-most H of 30 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Busch Stadium · St. Louis Cardinals
neutral (runs ×0.97, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 0.5 H- No-vig fair (over)
- 58.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 41.7%
Best Over
RT Sports-137
+0.9% EV
Best Under
DraftKings+128
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)-51.5%
Our model puts the over at 6.8% vs the market's no-vig 58.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 8%.