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Detroit TigersKeider Montero
#54 · P · 6-1 · 145 lb · 25 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 3.4 K · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cold underFireFactor 53/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency1argues against it
Projection
3.6 K
L5 4.2 · L10 3.3 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.8 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season25 games
32%over
8 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–52%Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%4/14Medium
Away36%4/11Low
Days since last game
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days35%8/23Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Wenceel Pérez out · Left Orbital Fracture-0.4 K when he sits
Without (12g)
3.3 K
33% over 4.5
With (13g)
3.6 K
31% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Keider Montero has gone over 4.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 32% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 3.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 44.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 55.2%
Best Over
FanDuel+116
-3.3% EV
Best Under
BetRivers-137
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-13.6%
Our model puts the over at 31.2% vs the market's no-vig 44.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 32%.