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New York YankeesKervin Castro
#74 · P · 5-10 · 234 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Aug 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListKervin Castro isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The transaction frees a spot on the 40-man roster for the addition of Michael Fulmer, who signed a one-year contract. Castro hit the shelf in mid-August due to right elbow neuritis, and Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports that the 27-year-old is scheduled to meet with Dr. Keith Meister in the near future to determine whether surgery is necessary to address the injury. Even if Castro is able to avoid a procedure, his move to the 60-day IL officially ends his season.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency49neutral
Projection
1.5 K
L5 1.6 · L10 1.6 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 1.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 5 games, Kervin Castro has gone over 1.5 K 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Yankee Stadium · New York Yankees
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.12)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.