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Milwaukee BrewersKyle Harrison
#52 · P · 6-2 · 216 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 5.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 6/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
4.5 K(×1.08 context)
L5 4.0 · L10 4.7 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.0 · ceil 8.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season24 games
54%over
13 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–72%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 22/24 | ||
| 83% | 20/24 | ||
| 63% | 15/24 | ||
| 4.5Current | 54% | 13/24 | |
| 46% | 11/24 | ||
| 38% | 9/24 | ||
| 29% | 7/24 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%8/12Low
Away42%5/12Low
Days since last game
3+ days52%12/23Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Luis Rengifo out · Right Knee Surgery-1.1 K when he sits
Without (8g)
4.9 K
38% over 4.5
With (16g)
5.9 K
63% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Kyle Harrison has gone over 4.5 K 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 54% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
American Family Field · Milwaukee Brewers
neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.05)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.