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San Francisco GiantsLanden Roupp
#65 · P · 6-2 · 220 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Sep 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.9 K · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutLanden Roupp isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Not Injury Related Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Sep 28, 2026
Roupp did fine until running into trouble in the fifth inning. He was pulled at 88 pitches (54 strikes), and Reiver Sanmartin allowed two inherited runners to score, which was enough to leave Roupp holding the loss. Over his last four outings, Roupp has allowed four runs across 20.1 innings, though he sports a lackluster 13:11 K:BB in that span. Overall, he's at a 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 143:75 K:BB across 155 innings through 29 starts. Roupp's next outing is projected to be a tough road matchup against the Dodgers over the weekend.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency37argues against it
Projection
3.6 K(×0.92 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.7 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season29 games
59%over
17 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–74%Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home69%9/13Medium
Away50%8/16Medium
Days since last game
3+ days57%16/28Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Willy Adames out · Left Elbow Sprain-1.2 K when he sits
Without (7g)
4.0 K
29% over 4.5
With (22g)
5.2 K
68% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Landen Roupp has gone over 4.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 59% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Market edgeauto
7 books @ 4.5 K- No-vig fair (over)
- 47.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 52.4%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet+100
-4.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-125
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-3.0%
Our model puts the over at 44.7% vs the market's no-vig 47.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 K). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.